Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering BOK Financial (BOKF) , which belongs to the Zacks Banks - Southwest industry.This Regional banking operator has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 8.16%.For the most recent quarter, BOK Financial was expected to post earni ...

Key Takeaways BOKF shares rose 17.9% in six months, outperforming the industry and its close peers.Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward, reflecting analyst optimism.Strong loan growth, improving asset quality and strategic expansions support BOKF's growth outlook.Over the past six months, shares of BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) have rallied 17.9% compared with the industry’s growth of 3%. The stock also outperformed its peers, First Horizon Corporation (FHN) and Cullen/Frost Bank ...

Core Viewpoint - BOK Financial Corporation will host a conference call to discuss its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on January 20, 2026 [1] Company Developments - The conference call may include discussions on company developments and forward-looking statements [1] Financial Matters - The call will cover other material information regarding business and financial matters [1]

Core Insights - The article compares First Horizon Corporation (FHN) and BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) as two banks with distinct growth strategies, risk management, and customer engagement approaches [1] Group 1: First Horizon Corporation (FHN) - FHN has shown consistent growth in loans and deposits, indicating a strong business model and stable core markets [2] - Management expects continued growth in the commercial and industrial portfolio, mortgage-warehouse activity, and consumer lending demand [2] - Recent quarterly results show loan expansion across key categories and improved deposit strength due to promotional offerings and customer engagement [2] - FHN's net interest income (NII) has been improving, with expectations for further enhancement as loan demand increases and funding costs stabilize [3] - As of September 30, 2025, FHN held $2.1 billion in cash and interest-bearing deposits, with short-term borrowings of $4.3 billion and term borrowings of $1.3 billion [3] - FHN's revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 imply year-over-year growth of 5.6% and 3.2%, respectively, with earnings expected to rise by 18.7% and 6.1% for the same years [10] - FHN's stock has gained 10.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry, which lost 5.4% [12] - FHN trades at a lower forward P/E of 11.69X compared to the industry average of 12.70X, indicating a more attractive valuation [16] - FHN has a dividend yield of 2.64%, having raised its quarterly dividend by 7% in January 2020 [19] Group 2: BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) - BOKF has a balanced outlook with consistent loan and deposit expansion and favorable margin trends [4] - The company targets a year-over-year loan growth of 5-7% for 2025, focusing on diversifying its loan portfolio [4] - BOKF's NII is on an upward trend, expected to reach $1.33–$1.35 billion for 2025, up from $1.2 billion in 2024 [5] - Strategic market expansions, such as entering the San Antonio market and opening an office in Memphis, are enhancing BOKF's growth profile [6] - As of September 30, 2025, BOKF had total debt of $4.2 billion, with cash and equivalents totaling $1.4 billion, indicating a potentially unmanageable debt level [7] - BOKF's revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 suggest year-over-year increases of 6.9% and 5.5%, respectively, with earnings expected to rise by 0.8% and 7.7% [11] - BOKF's stock has lost 1.1% over the past year, contrasting with FHN's performance [12] - BOKF trades at a higher forward P/E of 13.09X, reflecting a premium valuation compared to FHN [16] - BOKF has a dividend yield of 2.16%, having raised its quarterly dividend by 3.6% in October 2024 [19] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - FHN presents a more favorable upside profile due to steadier loan momentum, improving deposit stability, and a clearer runway for NII expansion [21] - BOKF's higher valuation, slower earnings growth outlook, and heavier debt load limit its relative appeal compared to FHN [22] - Both banks currently carry a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [22]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have reached their highest level since October 9, following the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the short-term benchmark rate, with analysts expressing disappointment over the lack of a clear indication for a December rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered its short-term benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75%-4% on October 29 [1]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion," which has dampened market expectations for further cuts [1][3]. - The CME Fed Watch tool showed a decrease in the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting, dropping from 91.1% to 66.6% after the Fed meeting [2]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Trends - Mortgage rates increased from approximately 6.13% to 6.27% immediately after Powell's comments, and further rose to 6.33% on October 30 [2]. - Historical trends indicate that mortgage rates often rise even when the Fed cuts rates, as seen in previous instances [4]. Group 3: Market Predictions - BOK Financial predicts that mortgage rates may ease slightly to around 5.9% to 6.0% due to cooler inflation and a slower labor market [5]. - Despite potential easing, the "lock-in effect" is constraining inventory and keeping home prices elevated, with over 80% of mortgages below 6% [7]. Group 4: Impact on Homeowners - The recent rate cut will lower Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) rates, benefiting existing homeowners [8].

Financial Performance - BOK Financial reported net income of $140.9 million, or $2.22 per diluted share, for Q3 2025, compared to $140.0 million, or $2.19 per diluted share, in Q2 2025[10]. - The company reported a net change in fair value of $2.92 billion for the three months ended September 30, 2025[31]. - Net income before taxes for the segments was $190.9 million in Q3 2025, a decrease of $15.9 million or 8% from Q2 2025[50]. - Net income before taxes from Consumer Banking decreased by $10.3 million, or 41%, to $14.5 million for the third quarter of 2025[59]. - Net income attributable to BOK Financial Corporation shareholders for Q3 2025 was $140,894,000, compared to $139,999,000 in Q3 2024, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6%[192]. Revenue and Income Sources - Net interest income totaled $337.6 million, an increase of $9.5 million over the prior quarter, with a net interest margin expanding 11 basis points to 2.91%[10]. - Fees and commissions revenue reached $204.4 million, up $7.1 million from the previous quarter, driven by increased municipal underwriting activity[10]. - Other operating revenue increased to $210.7 million for the third quarter of 2025, up $3.6 million from the second quarter of 2025, driven by growth in investment banking revenue[21]. - Total tax-equivalent interest revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was $9.5 million, a decrease of $3.9 million compared to the previous quarter[20]. - Total other operating revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $603,848,000, down from $629,597,000 in the same period of 2024, a decline of 4.1%[191]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Period end outstanding loan balances grew by $573 million to $24.9 billion, with average loan balances increasing by $650 million to $24.8 billion[10]. - Period end deposits increased by $254 million to $38.5 billion, with a loan to deposit ratio of 65%[10]. - Average outstanding loan balances attributed to Commercial Banking increased by $386 million, or 2%, to $20.3 billion over the second quarter of 2025[56]. - Average deposits for the third quarter of 2025 reached $38.481 billion, an increase of $345 million or 0.9% compared to the second quarter of 2025[130]. - Total deposits for BOK Financial reached $38.5 billion as of September 30, 2025, an increase from $38.2 billion in the previous quarter[138]. Expenses and Efficiency - Other operating expense for Q3 2025 totaled $369.8 million, an increase of $15.3 million from Q2 2025, with an efficiency ratio of 66.66%[39]. - Personnel expense was $226.3 million, up $11.6 million compared to Q2 2025, driven by a $5.4 million increase in cash-based incentive compensation due to stronger underwriting and loan origination activity[40]. - Non-personnel expense increased to $143.4 million, reflecting a $4.0 million rise in mortgage banking costs[41]. - The efficiency ratio for Q3 2025 was 66.66%, indicating the company's ability to manage its expenses relative to its income[155]. Capital and Equity - The tangible common equity ratio improved to 10.06% at September 30, 2025, up from 9.63% at June 30, 2025[10]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company's equity capital was $6.0 billion, reflecting a $132 million increase from June 30, 2025[145]. - The common equity Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 13.60% as of September 30, 2025, significantly above the minimum requirement of 4.50%[150]. - The total capital surplus as of September 30, 2025, was $1,447,084, an increase from $1,441,326 as of June 30, 2025, representing a growth of approximately 0.4%[195]. - Net income less cash dividends paid contributed to a $105 million increase in equity during Q3 2025[145]. Credit Quality and Losses - The provision for expected credit losses was $2.0 million in Q3 2025, reflecting loan growth, while net charge-offs were $3.6 million, or 0.06% of average loans[10]. - The total provision for credit losses for the quarter was $2,000 thousand, with an ending balance for the allowance for loan losses at $277,692 thousand, up from $277,049 thousand at June 30, 2025[110]. - Net charge-offs in Q3 2025 were $3.6 million, or 0.06% of average loans on an annualized basis, primarily due to a single commercial services loan[118]. - Total nonperforming assets decreased to $74.145 million at September 30, 2025, from $81.056 million at June 30, 2025[124]. - The allowance for loan losses to nonaccruing loans was 426.92% at September 30, 2025[124]. Market and Economic Outlook - The economic outlook includes a GDP growth forecast of 1.6% over the next 12 months, with a civilian unemployment rate of 4.5% in Q4 2025[117]. - The company anticipates three rate cuts over the next four quarters, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.25%[117]. - WTI oil prices are projected to average $57.08 per barrel over the next 12 months[117]. - The probability weighting for economic scenarios remained unchanged, with a 50% base case, 35% downside, and 15% upside[114]. Shareholder Returns - A regular cash dividend of $36.1 million, or $0.57 per common share, was paid during Q3 2025, with an increase to $0.63 per share approved for the next quarter[11]. - The company repurchased 365,547 shares of common stock at an average price of $111.00 per share in Q3 2025[10]. - Dividends declared per share increased to $0.57 in Q3 2025 from $0.55 in Q3 2024, representing a growth of 3.6%[191]. - The company repurchased 366 shares of common stock for a total amount of $(40,981) during the quarter[195].

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $140.9 million, translating to an EPS of $2.22 per diluted share for Q3 2025, reflecting a solid foundation for future growth [4] - Total outstanding loan balances increased by 2.4% sequentially, adding nearly $1.2 billion over the past two quarters [4][7] - Net interest margin expanded by 11 basis points, with core net interest income increasing by $11.3 million [5][14] - Fee income grew by 3.6% sequentially, contributing to overall performance [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core commercial and industrial (CNI) loan portfolio grew by 1.4% quarter over quarter, while the commercial real estate (CRE) business increased by 4.2% [7][8] - The specialty lending portfolio saw a slight increase, with healthcare loans up by 1.8% driven by strong origination activity [8] - Investment banking revenue reached a record of $16.1 million, primarily due to municipal bond underwriting activity [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Assets under management (AUMA) grew by 4.1% to $122.7 billion, marking the highest quarter on record [12] - The company maintained a strong liquidity profile with a loan-to-deposit ratio in the mid-60% range, providing strategic flexibility [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to sustain loan growth momentum, particularly in commercial real estate and core CNI, while being cautious about energy sector exposure [22] - M&A opportunities are considered, but the company prioritizes organic growth and share repurchases as primary uses of capital [24][25] - The launch of mortgage finance is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of $500 million in commitments by year-end [32][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong loan growth despite competitive pressures and market disruptions from M&A activity [22] - The company anticipates that net charge-offs will remain well below historical norms, supported by strong credit quality [9][17] - Future guidance includes expectations for loan growth of 5 to 7% and net interest income between $1.325 billion and $1.35 billion [16][17] Other Important Information - The company repurchased over 365,000 shares at an average price of $111 per share during the quarter [6] - Credit quality remains a core strength, with a combined allowance for credit losses at 1.32% of outstanding loans [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Loan growth expectations and competitive forces - Management noted strong loan growth of around 2.5% in recent quarters and expressed confidence in sustaining this momentum despite competitive pressures from M&A activity [20][22] Question: Capital allocation and M&A considerations - The company prioritizes organic growth and share repurchases, with M&A being a secondary consideration, focusing on strong core deposit franchises [24][25] Question: Core margin trends and expectations - Management indicated a continued upward trend in core margin, driven by fixed-rate asset repricing and deposit repricing opportunities [30] Question: Mortgage finance growth potential - The company expects significant growth in mortgage finance, with a target of $500 million in commitments by year-end and a strong appetite for growth in 2026 [32][42] Question: Fee income range and guidance - Management acknowledged the challenges in predicting fee income but expressed confidence in good activity across various fee-generating businesses [38] Question: Credit quality and charge-off expectations - Management reiterated strong credit quality and low charge-off expectations, with a long-term average loss rate projected around 20 to 25 basis points [66][67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $140.9 million, translating to an EPS of $2.22 per diluted share for Q3 2025, reflecting a solid foundation for future growth [4] - Total outstanding loan balances increased by 2.4% sequentially, adding nearly $1.2 billion over the past two quarters [4][7] - Net interest margin expanded by 11 basis points, with core net interest income increasing by $11.3 million [5][14] - Fee income grew by 3.6% sequentially, contributing to overall performance [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core Commercial and Industrial (CNI) loan portfolio grew by 1.4% quarter over quarter, while the commercial real estate (CRE) business increased by 4.2% [7][8] - The specialty lending portfolio saw a slight increase, with healthcare loans up by 1.8% driven by strong origination activity [8] - Investment banking revenue reached a record of $16.1 million, primarily due to municipal bond underwriting activity [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Assets Under Management (AUMA) grew to over $122 billion, marking a 4.1% increase in the third quarter [12] - The company maintained a strong liquidity profile with a loan-to-deposit ratio in the mid-60% range, providing strategic flexibility [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to sustain loan growth momentum, particularly in commercial real estate and CNI, while being cautious about energy sector exposure [22] - M&A opportunities are considered, but the company prioritizes organic growth and share repurchases as primary capital allocation strategies [24][25] - The launch of the mortgage finance business is expected to contribute significantly to loan growth in the coming quarters [32][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong loan growth despite competitive pressures and market disruptions from M&A activity [22] - The company anticipates net charge-offs to remain well below historical norms, supported by strong credit quality [9][17] - Future guidance includes expectations for loan growth of 5% - 7% and net interest income between $1.325 billion and $1.35 billion for the full year [17] Other Important Information - The company repurchased over 365,000 shares at an average price of $111 per share during the quarter, reflecting a commitment to shareholder value [6] - The combined allowance for credit losses is $328 million, representing a healthy 1.32% of outstanding loans [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Loan growth expectations and competitive forces - Management noted strong loan growth of around 2.5% in recent quarters and expressed confidence in sustaining this momentum despite competitive pressures from M&A activity [20][22] Question: Capital allocation and M&A considerations - The company prioritizes organic growth and share repurchases, with M&A being a secondary consideration depending on strategic value [24][25] Question: Core margin trends and expectations - Management indicated a continued upward trend in core margin, driven by fixed-rate asset repricing and deposit repricing opportunities [30] Question: Mortgage finance business potential - The company expects to achieve $500 million in commitments by year-end, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [32][42] Question: Fee income guidance and expense expectations - Management provided insights into the challenges of predicting fee income but expressed optimism about growth dynamics across various fee businesses [38] Question: Credit quality and charge-off expectations - Management confirmed strong credit quality and low charge-off rates, with expectations for charge-offs to remain below historical norms [66][67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $140.9 million, translating to an EPS of $2.22 per diluted share for Q3 2025, reflecting a solid foundation for future growth [3][4] - Total outstanding loan balances increased by 2.4% sequentially, adding almost $1.2 billion over the past two quarters [3][6] - Net interest margin expanded by 11 basis points, with core net interest income increasing by $11.3 million [4][13] - Fee income grew by 3.6% sequentially, contributing to overall performance [5][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core Commercial and Industrial (CNI) loan portfolio grew by 1.4% quarter over quarter, while the commercial real estate (CRE) business increased by 4.2% [6][7] - The specialty lending portfolio saw a slight increase, with healthcare loans up by 1.8% driven by strong origination activity [7] - Investment banking revenue reached a record of $16.1 million, primarily due to municipal bond underwriting activity [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Assets Under Management (AUMA) grew to over $122 billion, marking a 4.1% increase in the third quarter [5][11] - Non-performing assets decreased by $7 million to $67 million, with a non-performing assets to period loans ratio of 27 basis points [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to sustain growth momentum, particularly in the CNI and CRE sectors, while maintaining a strong liquidity profile [4][16] - There is a focus on organic growth, with share repurchases and dividends as secondary uses of capital, while M&A opportunities are considered cautiously [22][23] - The launch of the mortgage finance business is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of $500 million in commitments by year-end [30][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining loan growth despite competitive pressures and market disruptions from M&A activity [20][21] - The outlook for net interest income is projected between $1.325 billion and $1.35 billion, with expectations for continued growth in loans and deposits [16][18] - Credit quality remains strong, with expectations for low charge-offs and a healthy allowance for credit losses [8][72] Other Important Information - The company repurchased over 365,000 shares at an average price of $111 per share during the quarter, reflecting a commitment to shareholder value [5][6] - Total expenses increased by $15.3 million, primarily due to personnel expenses related to workforce realignment [13][15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Loan growth expectations and competitive forces - Management noted strong loan growth of around 2.5% in recent quarters and expressed confidence in sustaining this momentum despite competitive pressures from M&A activity [19][20] Question: Capital allocation and M&A considerations - The company prioritizes organic growth but remains open to M&A opportunities that align with strategic goals, emphasizing caution in execution [22][23] Question: Core margin trends and expectations - Management indicated a continued upward trend in core margin, driven by fixed-rate asset repricing and deposit repricing opportunities [26][27] Question: Mortgage finance business potential - The mortgage finance business is expected to grow significantly, with a target of $500 million in commitments by year-end and a strong growth outlook for 2026 [30][37] Question: Fee income range and guidance - Management discussed the challenges in providing precise guidance for fee income but noted strong activity across various fee-generating businesses [32][33] Question: Credit quality and charge-off expectations - The company maintains a strong credit quality outlook, with expectations for charge-offs to remain low in the near term [56][72]