美联储迎来黄金契机：“规则化”能否驯服通胀、抵挡特朗普干预？

Core Viewpoint - The recent criticism of the Federal Reserve (Fed) has escalated beyond normal levels, potentially damaging its credibility, with political figures like Trump and his administration openly attacking Fed Chairman Powell and questioning the Fed's monetary policy decisions [1]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Political pressure on the Fed reveals deeper issues regarding the lack of clear standards in monetary policy decision-making, making it difficult for the public to objectively assess the validity of these criticisms [1]. - The Fed's characterization of post-COVID inflation as a "transitory phenomenon" and its delayed interest rate hikes contributed to entrenched inflation, despite the economic consensus at the time not predicting such a significant deviation from trends [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Rules - Kedia argues that formalizing monetary policy could enhance economic stability and protect against political interference, suggesting that the Fed should publicly disclose its decision-making formula for the federal funds rate based on key indicators like inflation and unemployment [2]. - Historical data indicates that macroeconomic stability is generally better under rule-based approaches compared to discretionary policies, and debates over specific rules should not hinder the push for reform [2]. Group 3: Political Implications and Future Recommendations - Establishing clear rules could bolster market confidence in the non-political nature of Fed decisions and reduce speculation about interest rate movements [3]. - The current period is seen as a critical opportunity for the Fed to implement rule-based frameworks, and if it resists change, Congress may need to consider legislation to enforce such rules to curb the abuse of discretionary power and protect the Fed from political attacks [3].