Is a Beat in Store for Progressive This Earnings Season?

Core Insights - The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for Q2 2025, with revenue expected to reach $21.5 billion, reflecting a 17.9% increase year-over-year [1][9] - The earnings consensus estimate is $4.30 per share, indicating a significant year-over-year growth of 62.3%, with a recent upward revision of 9.4% in the last 30 days [2][9] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR's second-quarter revenues is $21.5 billion, which represents a 17.9% growth from the previous year [1][9] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $4.30, with a year-over-year growth of 62.3% [2][9] Earnings Surprise History - Progressive has a history of beating earnings estimates, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 13.98% [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a likely earnings beat for Progressive, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +2.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4][5] Factors Influencing Q2 Results - Key factors expected to contribute to revenue growth include increased premiums, higher net investment income, and fees and service revenues [5][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is $20.2 billion, driven by a strong product portfolio and retention rates [6] Business Segment Performance - The personal auto business is projected to benefit from competitive offerings and a strong market presence, with the consensus estimate for personal auto policies in force at 25.7 million [7] - A larger invested asset base is expected to enhance net investment income, estimated at $861 million, along with pretax net realized gains on securities pegged at $103.3 million [8] Expense Considerations - Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs, and other underwriting expenses are anticipated to increase overall expenses, with the consensus mark for the loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio at 69 [10] - The combined ratio is expected to improve, with a consensus mark of 89, benefiting from fewer catastrophic events and prudent underwriting practices [10]