SCSF(SH:600779) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-14 19:20Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in net profit and revenue for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily due to ongoing challenges in the liquor industry and reduced consumer demand [1][9][10]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105.41 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 137.01 million yuan or 56.52% year-on-year [3][9]. - The expected operating revenue for the same period is 1.4978 billion yuan, down 220.72 million yuan or 12.84% compared to the previous year [3][9]. - Sales volume is projected to increase by 543 thousand liters, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.54%, with all sales coming from mid-to-high-end liquor [3][9]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the same period last year, the company reported a total profit of 329.50 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 242.42 million yuan [5]. - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 228.03 million yuan [5]. - The operating revenue for the previous year was 1.71852 billion yuan, with a sales volume of 3.735 million liters [7][8]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Changes - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with traditional consumption scenarios like business banquets facing significant pressure, leading to a slowdown in market recovery [9]. - The overall consumption performance during the Spring Festival was below expectations, resulting in higher-than-expected channel inventory levels, which affected shipment volumes in the following months [10]. - The trend of weak consumer demand further intensified in the second quarter, impacting the inventory reduction process and slowing down the recovery of shipments [10].