丙烯品种基础知识专栏（三）| 丙烯进出口与贸易概况

Core Viewpoint - China is transitioning from being a net importer of propylene to reducing its import dependency due to expanding domestic production capacity, with imports expected to reach their lowest levels in recent years by 2024 [1] Group 1: Import and Export Dynamics - Propylene imports in China were stable at around 3 million tons from 2016 to 2019, with an import dependency of approximately 10% [1] - By 2024, propylene imports are projected to decline to 2.02 million tons, resulting in an import dependency of about 3.7% [1] - The majority of propylene imports come from South Korea (73.7%) and Japan (18.5%), accounting for a combined total of 92.3% of imports [1] - Propylene exports from China are minimal and often occur under conditions of domestic market oversupply [1] - In 2021, propylene exports surged due to price disparities caused by external factors in Europe and the U.S., with significant exports to South America and Asia [1] Group 2: Sales Models and Trade Structure - Propylene sales are conducted through long-term contracts and spot sales, with long-term contracts typically accounting for about 50% of trade [2] - The spot market for propylene is active, with approximately 60% of purchases made directly from producers and 40% involving traders [2] - As of 2024, there are nearly 50 propylene traders in China, with around 20 large traders selling over 20,000 tons annually [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Patterns - Propylene production and consumption are widespread in China, with major production and consumption occurring in North and East China [3] - Shandong and Zhejiang are the largest provinces for both production and consumption of propylene, with Shandong facing a significant demand gap [3] - The South China region relies on imports and East China for propylene supply due to consumption gaps [3] - Most large propylene producers in China are integrated with downstream production facilities, leading to a situation where the commercial volume of propylene is less than the total production [3]