特朗普重启关税大棒 市场却“不为所动” 美股、债市上半年表现强劲

Core Viewpoint - Despite the implementation of unprecedented tariff policies by President Trump in the first half of 2025, the U.S. stock and bond markets have shown strong performance, indicating that investors are not overly reacting to these "dramatic" policies [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has risen by 6.6% year-to-date, closing only 0.2% below its all-time high set on July 10 [1]. - The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) has recorded a year-to-date return of 3.2%, contributing to market confidence [1]. Economic Impact - David Kelly from JPMorgan Asset Management noted that the U.S. market has become more resilient to policy changes, with minimal actual impact on the economy and markets so far [2]. - The anticipated effects of tariffs on fiscal revenue are expected to manifest by November, as there is a lag in the actual collection of tariffs due to timing differences in cargo departures [2]. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation - Investors are closely monitoring whether retail companies will pass on higher import costs to consumers, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) being a key focus [3]. - Kelly indicated that the CPI data may only reflect the initial wave of tariff impacts, with most inflation effects expected to emerge in the coming months [3]. Policy Effects and Recommendations - The tightening of policies, including immigration and federal layoffs, may negatively affect consumption, corporate behavior, and the job market in the future [3]. - Kelly advised maintaining a balanced asset allocation to prepare for the gradual impact of policies introduced in the first half of the year [3].