天风证券：石化“反内卷”抓手或在控产能

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities highlights the significant changes in the petrochemical industry leading up to 2025, focusing on capacity growth and the challenges posed by overcapacity and demand shifts in the refining and ethylene sectors [1] Group 1: Industry Capacity Growth - Since 2015, there has been substantial growth in the production capacity of major petrochemical products, with ethylene, MEG, PE, PP, pure benzene, PX, PTA, and polyester showing cumulative increases of 179%, 219%, 131%, 150%, 130%, 255%, 130%, and 98% respectively [1] - The self-sufficiency rate for ethylene equivalent has improved significantly, rising from 57% in 2020 to 76% in 2024, with expectations for further increases due to upcoming production waves [1] Group 2: Challenges Facing the Industry - The refining industry is confronted with the peak and decline of refined oil demand, necessitating a net elimination of capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, rather than merely controlling new capacity additions [1] - The ethylene sector faces challenges from excessive new capacity driven by oil conversion and differentiated production routes (coal-based and gas-based), which exacerbate overcapacity issues [1] - There is a need for the 14th Five-Year Plan to control new capacity additions, tighten project approvals, and eliminate smaller projects that do not meet energy consumption and carbon emission standards [1]