徽商期货：黄金震荡偏强运行，中长期逢低做多为主

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. has delayed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1 due to slow trade negotiations with other countries, maintaining a 10% "minimum baseline" tariff on all trade partners until then [2] - President Trump has threatened to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico starting August 1, increasing market uncertainty and potentially leading to heightened market volatility [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The U.S. economy continues to grow steadily despite the disruptions caused by Trump's tariff policies, which may increase inflation levels [3] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, with most officials expressing concerns about inflation pressures from tariffs [3] - Fed Chair Powell reiterated a "wait-and-see" approach, suggesting no immediate rate cuts, which could lead to increased downward pressure on the dollar index and strengthen gold's upward momentum [3] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally have been purchasing gold, with China's central bank increasing its reserves for 19 consecutive months, totaling 10.16 million ounces [4] - As of June, China's gold reserves slightly increased to 73.9 million ounces, although the pace of purchases has slowed due to high costs associated with gold price fluctuations [4] - The ongoing central bank purchases provide long-term support for gold prices amid global political instability and a trend towards de-dollarization [4]