美联储结束缩表的门槛到底有多高？华尔街质疑沃勒预测！

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's board member Waller indicated that bank reserves could be reduced from approximately $3.34 trillion to around $2.7 trillion as part of the ongoing quantitative tightening process [1] - JPMorgan strategists believe that the necessary level of "adequate reserves" to avoid disrupting the overnight funding market may need to be higher than previously anticipated [1][4] - Citigroup strategists forecast that bank reserves could decline to $2.8 trillion by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Market participants are closely monitoring the cash levels held by banks at the Federal Reserve to determine when to halt the balance sheet reduction [4] - Following the increase in the debt ceiling, Wall Street is observing signs of rising Treasury cash balances, which could drain excess liquidity from the financial system and make it more susceptible to shocks [4] - JPMorgan's report highlighted that the threshold for "adequate reserves" may need to be higher due to the emphasis on liquidity in the current regulatory framework, especially in light of the regional banking crisis in March 2023 [4] Group 3 - A survey conducted by the New York Fed indicated that the median expectation for reserve balances at the end of quantitative tightening is $2.875 trillion [5] - The Federal Reserve began reducing its balance sheet in June 2022, and in April 2023, policymakers slowed the pace of this reduction [5] - Waller mentioned that the ratio of reserves to GDP fell below 7% in September 2019, while it was 8% in January 2019, indicating that the banking system faced "no significant pressure" at that time [5]