Supply and Demand Support - The domestic methanol industry is expected to gradually tighten its supply and demand structure in the second half of the year, with limited new capacity and low trade volume [1] - Methanol prices are anticipated to gradually rise due to the release of downstream project demands in olefins, acetic acid, MTBE, and formaldehyde [1] New Capacity and Market Pressure - As of June 30, the total effective capacity of the domestic methanol industry reached 10,720.5 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 4.22% in the first half of the year [2] - New projects added a total capacity of 6.8 million tons in the first half, with significant contributions from Inner Mongolia Baofeng and Xinjiang Zhongtai [2] - An estimated 2.35 million tons of new capacity is expected in the second half, but it will have limited impact on trade flow due to downstream projects [2] Profitability of Different Production Processes - Coal prices have significantly decreased, leading to a reduction in methanol production costs, with theoretical costs around 1,840 yuan/ton for Inner Mongolia and 1,940 yuan/ton for Shanxi [3][5] - The profitability of coal-based methanol production remains high, with profits reaching 300 yuan/ton at peak levels [5] Seasonal Maintenance and Production Capacity - The average capacity utilization rate for the domestic methanol industry was 88.21% in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 5.71 percentage points [9] - Seasonal maintenance in the autumn may lead to a significant reduction in methanol supply, especially for natural gas-based production due to winter heating demands [10][12] Import Dynamics and External Factors - Domestic methanol imports decreased by 20.75% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions in Iran [13][15] - The potential for reduced imports from Iran remains high due to ongoing conflicts and seasonal gas supply issues [15][16] Downstream Demand and Market Conditions - The demand from traditional downstream sectors such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is under pressure, while sectors like acetic acid and MTBE show resilience [18][21] - New downstream projects are expected to release additional methanol demand, with significant capacity additions planned for acetic acid and BDO [20] Overall Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to experience a tightening supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, with optimistic demand forecasts and potential price increases [23]
甲醇 下半年价格中枢将上移
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-15 03:25