邓正红能源软实力：贸易战冲击需求、地缘风险消退与增产预期形成三重原油利空

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's trade war and the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire plan on oil prices, highlighting a downward trend in oil prices due to weakened demand, reduced geopolitical risks, and increased production expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Demand Side Analysis - Trump's trade war is expected to suppress global demand for oil, with OPEC lowering its 2025 global daily oil demand growth forecast from 1.45 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also reduced its daily demand forecast by 300,000 barrels, indicating a significant erosion of market confidence due to tariff policies [2]. - The imposition of tariffs between the US and China has led to a "quasi-embargo" state in bilateral trade, further weakening oil consumption efficiency [2]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - Trump's avoidance of direct sanctions on Russian oil exports reflects a strategic dilemma, as he aims to showcase geopolitical control while avoiding domestic inflation spikes [3]. - The lack of direct sanctions has led to a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums, with traders previously expecting stronger actions against Russian oil exports [3]. - The OPEC alliance is caught in a cycle of increasing production to maintain market share, which exacerbates the downward pressure on oil prices [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The interplay of US unilateral tariff policies and potential EU countermeasures reveals a failure of global cooperation mechanisms, leading to systemic market shocks [3]. - The current market is characterized by a critical phase of "non-material factors versus real fundamentals," with the trade war, reduced geopolitical risks, and production increases creating a trifecta of negative influences on oil prices [3]. - Citigroup predicts that Brent crude oil prices may drop to $60-$65 per barrel in the second half of 2025, reflecting the pressure from the collapse of soft power on pricing [3].