Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-15 04:30Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. market, with a focus on the upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that is expected to show a significant increase in prices due to tariffs [1][3][4] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The market anticipates a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the June CPI, a notable acceleration from May's 0.1% [1][3] - Core CPI is also expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, matching the overall CPI expectation [1][4] - Year-over-year core CPI is projected to be in the range of 2.8% to 3.1% [1] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank expect the impact of tariffs to become more pronounced in the second half of the year, with differing views on whether this will lead to sustained inflation pressure [3][4] - Goldman Sachs predicts a core CPI increase of 0.23% for June, slightly below market consensus, and anticipates a core CPI annual increase of 3.1% by December 2025, excluding tariff effects [4] - Wells Fargo suggests that while inflation may rise, it is not alarming enough to concern Federal Reserve officials at this stage [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market has already priced in an average tariff rate increase of about 10%, according to Deutsche Bank [6] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the risk-reward for the CPI data leans towards an upside surprise, but significant market reactions may not occur until the next month [8] - The S&P 500 index is expected to react variably based on the core CPI growth, with potential declines if the growth exceeds certain thresholds [8]