你敢加关税，我就抛售美债？特朗普被反将一军，日本还有2张王牌

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's recent tariff threats against Japan and other countries, highlighting Japan's strong stance and its leverage in the form of U.S. Treasury holdings and investment in the U.S. [1][5][6] Group 1: Trump's Tariff Policy - Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea, sending letters to 14 countries and notifying over 100 trade partners about upcoming tariffs [1] - An executive order has been signed to extend the 90-day "reciprocal tariff" measure until August 1 [1] - The approach taken by Trump indicates a lack of willingness to negotiate, aiming to pressure countries into compliance [1][8] Group 2: Japan's Response - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized the importance of national interests and stated that Japan will not be intimidated in tariff negotiations [3] - Ishiba's government is unlikely to make concessions due to the significant economic implications of U.S. demands, particularly concerning the automotive and agricultural sectors [3][5] - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections add pressure on Ishiba to maintain a strong position against U.S. tariffs [3] Group 3: Japan's Leverage - Japan holds significant U.S. Treasury bonds, which could be used as leverage in negotiations; a potential sell-off of these bonds could threaten the U.S. economy [5][6] - Japan is the largest foreign investor in the U.S., and a withdrawal of investments could lead to increased unemployment and inflation in the U.S., undermining Trump's promises to voters [6] - The presence of these two "trump cards" gives Japan the confidence to stand firm against U.S. tariff threats [5][6] Group 4: Implications of Trump's Strategy - Trump's direct notification of tariff increases suggests a lack of effective negotiation capability and low enforceability of the tariff policy [8] - The inability to reach agreements with countries before the 90-day deadline indicates challenges in managing multiple trade negotiations simultaneously [8]