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日债危机进入新阶段:10年期收益率升破警戒线
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-15 06:14

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant turmoil due to political uncertainty and fiscal concerns, with the 10-year bond yield surpassing critical levels, indicating heightened market anxiety [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - On July 15, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 1.595%, the highest level since 2008 [1]. - The 20-year bond yield increased by 3.5 basis points to 2.64%, while the 30-year yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.195%, both reaching levels not seen since 1999 [1]. - Yields on bonds with maturities of 20 years and above have cumulatively increased by at least 20 basis points this month [1]. Group 2: Political Context and Market Reactions - The rise in yields is occurring just before the Japanese House of Councillors election on July 20, with concerns that the ruling coalition may lose, potentially leading to a significant shift in fiscal policy [3][4]. - Analysts warn that a large-scale sell-off by "bond vigilantes" could lead to market turmoil similar to the UK's "Truss moment" in 2022, which was triggered by aggressive tax cuts [3][4]. - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partners face declining support in polls, raising fears of increased fiscal deficits and diminished investor confidence in bonds [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rise in the 10-year yield is particularly concerning as it directly affects the cost of financing for businesses and households, potentially impacting economic activity [3][4]. - Economists emphasize that while long-term bonds have limited impact on corporate financing, the sustained increase in the 10-year yield warrants close attention, especially given the uncertain fiscal health [3][4]. Group 4: Global Context - The increase in Japanese bond yields is part of a broader global trend, with long-term government bonds worldwide experiencing declines as investors worry about government spending exceeding sustainable levels [6]. - The rise in yields for Japanese bonds of 20 years and longer is seen as part of a global bond sell-off, with concerns about fiscal conditions driving investor behavior [6].