资管巨头GMO再喊话：新兴市场债券“世代难遇”的机会还没走完

Group 1 - The attractiveness of emerging market assets is increasing as global investment managers seek alternatives due to uncertainty in U.S. policies [1] - GMO's portfolio manager Victoria Courmes emphasizes that emerging market bonds present a "once-in-a-generation" investment opportunity, driven by the trade and economic policies of the Trump administration [2] - Since GMO first highlighted this opportunity in January 2024, the index tracking emerging market bond returns has risen over 10%, outperforming investment-grade bonds which increased by about 5% during the same period [2] Group 2 - Courmes believes that the Trump administration's policies are key catalysts for the potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which would enhance the relative value of emerging market local currencies [2] - Currently, interest rates in emerging markets have returned to average levels seen between 2004 and 2011, offering total return potential that exceeds spot currency appreciation [2] - The opportunity to acquire a combination of cheap currency and high interest rates is rare and typically does not last long [3] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs also shares a positive outlook on emerging market bonds, indicating that their prospects will become more constructive in the second half of the year [3] - Analyst Tadas Gedminas from Goldman Sachs suggests that as the Federal Reserve approaches interest rate cuts and considering the expectation of further declines in oil prices, the outlook for local rates in emerging markets will become more optimistic in the latter half of the year [4]