信息量大！官方定调上半年房地产：正常现象，下半年力度更大

Core Viewpoint - The current state and future of the real estate market are viewed objectively, with a focus on future deployment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In June 2025, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, only Xining saw a 0.1% increase in second-hand housing prices, while major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively [3] - The overall real estate market showed signs of volatility in the first half of the year, with a notable decline in sales and prices, despite a brief recovery earlier in the year [3][4] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 3.5% year-on-year decrease in new housing sales area, but this was a 15.5 percentage point improvement compared to the previous year [6] Group 2: Policy Impact - The government has implemented measures to stabilize the real estate market, with positive feedback observed in the data, indicating a move towards stabilization despite ongoing challenges [4][6] - The improvement in market conditions is attributed to targeted policies, with a focus on city-specific strategies to enhance effectiveness [8] - The government plans to continue pushing for stronger policies to support market stabilization in the second half of the year, including potential adjustments to restrictive measures in first-tier cities [8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate market's recovery is closely linked to the overall economic recovery, with expectations for stable growth in the economy supporting a positive outlook for the real estate sector [8] - The second half of the year is anticipated to see improved data, particularly in the fourth quarter, as policies are expected to take effect and economic conditions improve [10]