30%关税，对欧盟意味着什么？

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU by the U.S. is expected to lead to significant economic repercussions, including potential retaliation from the EU and a deeper economic slowdown in the Eurozone [1][2][3]. Economic Impact - A 30% tariff, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from the EU, could shrink Eurozone economic output by 0.7% [1][3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) may lower its policy interest rate to 1% by the first quarter of 2026, down from the current 2% [1][3]. - Germany, as a key exporter, could face losses exceeding €200 billion due to tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% by 2028 [3]. Market Reactions - The threat of tariffs has increased risk exposure across asset classes, with European stocks potentially facing double-digit declines [4]. - The euro may experience downward pressure if high tariffs are imposed, affecting its macroeconomic outlook [4]. - Bond markets are reflecting heightened risk aversion, with predictions that short-term euro interest rates could drop below 1.5% and 10-year German bond yields may fall below 2.5% [4]. Negotiation Dynamics - As the August 1 deadline approaches, there is a complex negotiation landscape, with the possibility of temporary agreements but a higher likelihood of tariff increases [5]. - Internal divisions within the EU exist regarding the response to U.S. tariffs, with some countries advocating for caution while others push for a stronger stance [5]. - The ongoing trade uncertainty may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which could serve as an unexpected leverage point for the EU in negotiations [5].