根本不敢想这个暑期档过后电影市场会怎么样

Core Insights - The film market in June reported a box office of 1.907 billion, returning to levels seen in 2013 [1] - The summer box office has only reached 3 billion so far, significantly lower than last year's 11.643 billion, with a gap of 8 billion to meet this year's KPI [2] - The current state of the film market suggests that even a "V-shaped recovery" during the summer will not change the prevailing trend, and if no recovery occurs, the post-summer market outlook is bleak [3] Industry Performance - The film industry is experiencing a "supply crisis" as the films that typically support the market are disappearing, with a lack of "small hits" (300 million to 500 million) and "near hits" (500 million to 1 billion) [5] - The number of films achieving over 1 billion in box office has decreased significantly, with only 3 films reaching this milestone in 2023, all from the Spring Festival [6] - The absence of "near hits" has led to many domestic films facing losses, which in turn reduces the effective production rate [8] Audience Dynamics - The primary audience for films has shifted, with those aged 25-34 making up 47% of viewers in 2024, while the share of viewers under 24 has halved from 39% to 21% since 2017 [13][14] - The film industry has not adequately addressed the "silver economy," ignoring the growing elderly population, which is projected to reach 400 million by 2031 [18][19] International Cooperation - The international film market is showing signs of recovery, but the ability to penetrate Western markets remains challenging due to cultural and aesthetic differences [24][26] - There are emerging opportunities in the Middle Eastern market, which is developing rapidly, with significant investments in entertainment infrastructure [28][29] - The potential for collaboration in Southeast Asia is also highlighted, with Malaysia showing a strong demand for Chinese films [30]