JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 智通财经网·2025-07-15 08:24Group 1: Inflation Dynamics - The report highlights a critical turning point in U.S. inflation dynamics, with actual tariffs rising from 2.3% at the beginning of the year to approximately 13%, potentially approaching 20% for the year if industry-specific tariffs are implemented [1] - Despite the overall CPI remaining low at 2.4% in May, economists warn that the annualized inflation rate could surge to 5% in the second half of the year, closely linked to the delayed market response to tariff policies and oil prices [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Corporate Strategies - The current inflation is being dulled by the suppression of oil prices, with Brent crude prices declining year-on-year, but this favorable impact is diminishing as oil prices have been rising since April [1] - Companies initially chose to internalize tariff costs due to concerns over consumer acceptance of price increases and the need to maintain market share, but some have begun to pass on costs, particularly in the automotive and luxury goods sectors [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Currency Trends - The report predicts a short-term rebound in the dollar, but a continued weak trend in the medium term, which historically correlates with rising import inflation [1] - A sustained depreciation of the dollar could lead to increased prices for imported goods, further elevating the CPI and creating a "tariff-exchange rate-inflation" transmission loop [1] Group 4: Industry Strategies - Morgan Stanley holds a cautious view on the energy sector while expressing optimism for mining companies, reiterating a "double upgrade" rating for the mining sector due to weak dollar conditions and low global metal inventories benefiting mining profitability [2] - The industrial sector shows differentiation, with most companies managing to offset tariff costs through price increases, but some may face profit pressure due to limitations on price adjustments [2] Group 5: Corporate Responses - Corporate strategies are characterized by three phases: initially focusing on internal cost absorption, then attempting price adjustments, and finally shifting towards supply chain optimization [3] - Examples include H&M adjusting pricing strategies, Inditex leveraging global procurement to mitigate risks, and ArcelorMittal quantifying tariff costs (approximately $800 million/year, accounting for 10% of EBITDA) while benefiting from rising U.S. steel prices [3] Group 6: Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The core strategy emphasizes that inflation rebound is driven by a combination of factors including oil prices, corporate behavior, and currency fluctuations [4] - The industry allocation recommendations reflect a preference for resource assets while cautioning about short-term pain in the industrial sector, highlighting the need for investors to monitor corporate cost transfer capabilities and supply chain resilience to seize structural opportunities amid rising inflation [4]