特朗普的关税“核弹”！一旦引爆，欧美1.7万亿贸易或将中断

Group 1 - The European ministers are optimistic about reaching a trade agreement with the Trump administration before the August 1 deadline, aiming to maintain the $1.7 trillion bilateral trade relationship [2] - Trump's fluctuating sentiments towards the EU, sometimes friendly and other times accusatory, contribute to the ongoing threat of a 30% tariff [2] - The EU trade chief indicated that continuing trade in the traditional transatlantic manner would be nearly impossible under such tariffs, effectively prohibiting trade [2] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that an average tariff rate of 35% on EU goods, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from Brussels, could reduce Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [3] - The potential economic loss for Germany due to tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% could exceed €200 billion by 2028, impacting Chancellor Merz's plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending [3] - The long-term implications of high tariffs raise concerns about how Europe will compensate for lost economic activity to fund essential services and military restructuring [3] Group 3 - The EU has made progress in establishing preliminary agreements with new trade partners, but faces challenges in finalizing these agreements [4] - Analysts suggest that the confrontation with Trump may provide the EU with an opportunity to push through long-delayed single market reforms and rebalance its economy away from heavy reliance on exports [4] Group 4 - The IMF estimates that internal barriers to the free movement of goods within the EU equate to tariffs of 44% on goods and 110% on services [5] - Proposed reforms to create a more open cross-border capital market have seen little progress over the past decade [5] - The EU remains open to negotiations while preparing retaliatory measures in case talks break down, with uncertainty potentially influencing Trump's decision-making [5]