“难以为继”成真，你叶公好龙否？

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment, with potential for a rebound after this phase, particularly if the support level at 3480 is maintained [15][17]. Market Performance - The market opened at 3519, reached a high of 3327, a low of 3483, and closed at 3505, indicating a bearish trend with more stocks declining than rising, at a ratio of 1332 to 4017 [1]. - The presence of a "shooting star" candlestick pattern suggests a bearish signal, leading to two consecutive days of decline [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The market is currently in a weak balance state, closing just above 3500 but below 3509, indicating indecision among traders [3][16]. - Key support and resistance levels have been identified: the upper resistance is at 3555, while critical support is at 3480 [18]. - The mid-term outlook remains bullish as long as the market stays above the 60-day moving average, with a potential target of 4000 points if the upward trend continues [6][7]. Short-term Strategy - The recommendation is to consolidate positions rather than aggressively pursue new highs, as the market has not yet met the criteria for heavy investment [4]. - The next few days are crucial for determining whether a short-term low will be established, which could delay the formation of a mid-term high [3][15]. Index Performance - The major indices are currently positioned as follows: - The main index is between 3487 and 3417, with a strong point at 3555 [8]. - The ChiNext index is between 2181 and 2100, with a strong point at 2245 [9]. - The 50 index is between 2740 and 2708, with a strong point at 2805 [10]. Volume and Market Sentiment - Trading volume has decreased, indicating a lack of strong conviction in either direction, with the market currently caught between the 5-day and 10-day average volume lines [13]. - The overall sentiment reflects a cautious approach, with traders advised to monitor key levels closely for signs of a breakout or further decline [14][17].