管涛：稳定币发展前景研究的问题与建议

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) indicates that while stablecoins show potential in tokenization, they fail to meet the key requirements of the international monetary system, specifically in terms of singularity, elasticity, and integrity. Therefore, the future role of stablecoins in the monetary system remains uncertain, and they are likely to play only a supplementary role [1]. Group 1: Stablecoin Characteristics - Stablecoins consist of two components: tokenization and the token itself, with tokenization referring to the process of recording claims on physical or financial assets on a programmable platform [2]. - The emergence of stablecoins was influenced by the 2008 financial crisis, which led to a questioning of the credibility of central banks and the financial system, paving the way for decentralized and programmable currencies like Bitcoin [2][3]. - Stablecoins differ from Bitcoin in that they exhibit lower price volatility, making them more suitable for payment and settlement functions [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Market Dynamics - Prior to regulation, stablecoins were linked to various assets, including fiat currencies and commodities, but post-regulation, they are primarily expected to be pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies [4]. - The compliance costs associated with regulation are expected to increase, potentially leading to the exit of 80% of existing stablecoins from the market [5]. - The market value of stablecoins, initially projected to reach $1 trillion by 2028, may now only reach $500 billion due to regulatory impacts [5]. Group 3: Cross-Border Payment Innovations - China has made significant advancements in third-party payment systems, achieving a near cashless society with platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay [6]. - The People's Bank of China has been piloting a digital currency, with significant transaction volumes indicating a strong focus on enhancing cross-border payment efficiency [7]. - The digital currency initiative aims to improve cross-border payment experiences, with the potential to reduce transaction times significantly compared to traditional methods [8]. Group 4: The Future of Stablecoins and Digital Currencies - The BIS report suggests that the current trend of private stablecoin issuance may lead to financial instability and increased regulatory burdens [5]. - The debate continues on whether the decentralized and anonymous features of stablecoins are essential, especially as traditional payment systems evolve [8][9]. - The distinction between stablecoins and traditional currencies raises questions about the true internationalization of currencies, particularly regarding the role of the US dollar in stablecoin transactions [12].