Sublime China Information (SZ:301299) Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang·2025-07-15 10:36Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China is expected to decrease due to fluctuations in international oil prices and domestic supply-demand dynamics [2][3] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The retail price of gasoline and diesel is predicted to be lowered by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively, translating to a decrease of 0.10 yuan for 92-octane gasoline, 0.11 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.11 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2] - After this adjustment, the national standard price for 92-octane gasoline in Zibo will drop to approximately 7.23 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline will decrease to around 7.75 yuan per liter [3] Group 2: Year-to-Date Adjustments - Following this price change, the year-to-date adjustments for refined oil will reflect a pattern of "6 increases, 6 decreases, and 2 stasis," with cumulative reductions of 225 yuan per ton for gasoline and 215 yuan per ton for diesel [3] Group 3: Cost Savings for Consumers - For a household car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will save approximately 5 yuan, while a small private car running 2,000 kilometers monthly will see a reduction of about 7 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [3] - A heavy-duty truck running 10,000 kilometers monthly will experience a decrease of around 195 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts indicate that while OPEC+ is likely to maintain significant production increases in August and September, potential supply risks may arise from new U.S. sanctions on Russia [4] - The traditional peak season for fuel demand in the U.S. continues, supporting the market, although there are uncertainties regarding the next price adjustment due to fluctuating oil prices [4]