柳工(000528)：业绩好于预期 挖机内销或持续优于行业

Core Viewpoint - LiuGong is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by a recovery in domestic construction machinery demand and growth in both domestic and international sales [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.18-1.279 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%-30%, with a median estimate of 1.229 billion yuan, up 25% [1] - For Q2 2025, the expected net profit is between 523-621 million yuan, with a median of 572 million yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [1] - The forecasted net profit excluding non-recurring items for H1 2025 is 1.09-1.188 billion yuan, a growth of 21%-32%, with a median of 1.139 billion yuan, up 26% [1] Market Trends - The domestic excavator market is projected to see a sales volume of 65,637 units in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23%, benefiting from a low base after a significant decline in the previous period [2] - LiuGong, as a leading domestic excavator manufacturer, is expected to outperform the industry and steadily increase its market share [2] - The loader market is also anticipated to grow, with expected sales of 35,622 units in H1 2025, a 23% increase year-on-year, driven by rising demand and the penetration of electric machinery [2] International Expansion - LiuGong's overseas revenue is expected to continue growing, with emerging markets being a significant driver [2][3] - From January to May 2025, China's overall engineering machinery exports reached 23.057 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [2] - Key regions such as Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Indonesia have shown substantial growth in exports, with increases of 49%, 32%, 28%, and 22% respectively [3] Future Outlook - The domestic market is expected to benefit from an upward trend in the industry cycle, driven by equipment updates and electrification [3] - LiuGong is projected to achieve net profits of 1.86 billion yuan and 2.523 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11 times and 8 times [3]