[Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·工程机械 柳工（000528） 2025 半年度业绩预告点评：归母净利润同比 +20%~30%超市场预期，看好公司全年业绩 高增 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 27,519 | 30,063 | 35,012 | 39,165 | 45,010 | | 同比（%） | 3.93 | 9.24 | 16.46 | 11.86 | 14.92 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 867.81 | 1,327.04 | 2,071.69 | 2,893.29 | 3,794.95 | | 同比（%） | 44.80 | 52.92 | 56.11 | 39.66 | 31.16 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.43 | 0.66 | 1.03 | 1.43 | 1.88 | | P/E（现价&最新摊 ...

摘要 / 又来政策市 段子说完了，哈哈哈，周报写点正经的！ 虽然周五沪指上演了"水牛"行情，但 这一波应该是站稳3500点了！ 还是一波政策市，除了之前的地产中央级会议，周五彭博报道， 包括人行顾问等 学者建议，政府应追加 1.5 万亿元（约合 2090亿美元）的新刺激计划以提振消 费， 并通过保持⼈⺠币汇率灵活性来抵消美国关税对经济增长的拖累。 最近政治局会议要开了，来炒炒预期，哈哈哈 花旗预计7月政治局会议不会进行预算中期修订或增加政府债券额度。财政部可 能会稳步执行2025年预算，推动市场相关的举措， 例如[1]持续的以旧换新政 策、[2]育儿补贴以及[3]进一步的房地产支持。 若有需要，财政部也可能动用准 财政工具，并在极端情况下使用2026年债券额度进行债务置换。 花旗还预计，会议会针对反内卷给出进一步指导。会议可能会决定召开二十届四 中全会，预计时间在10月，但具体日期可能不会立即公布。 这是一个什么样的3500点？ 华西总结了三个特征：其一，基本面修复偏缓，主要定价政策预期；其二，结构 行情明显，6月23日以来消费板块涨幅不明显。其三，赚钱效应仍待提高，主线 暂不明朗。 7月以来，市场隐含波动率 ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/07/07-2025/07/11）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 1.87%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 15；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.82%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 10.32%，在申万 3 1 个一级行业分类中排名第 8；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 2.03%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 造船价企稳回升，中国船舶 Q2 业绩高增，看好当前低估的船舶龙头。2025 年 6 月，全球新造船价格指数为 18 7.11，环比+0.22%，新船价格已经走出了环比连续下滑的趋势，行业景气度边际改善。此外，7 月 10 日中国船 舶发布中报业绩预告，25H1 实现归母净利润 28-31 亿元，同比增长 98.25-119.49%，既印证了行业景气度上行， 也证明了公司具备较强的业绩释放能力。同时伴随着"南北船"重组加速，中国船舶未来全球竞争力和盈利能 力有望进一步提升，当前 PE 仅 22x，显著低估，当前时点建议重点关注。 ...

柳工（000528）7月11日在分析师会议上表示，预计下半年国内土方机械的市场需求将继续保持增长势 头，全年挖掘机、装载机的行业整体销量有望实现两位数以上同比增速，经济财政政策环境以及各类结 构性需求也会带来机会。国际市场面临全球贸易保护主义回潮等多重复杂因素挑战，整体仍处于需求筑 底期，2026年有望逐步复苏，区域之间的分化依旧存在，新兴市场的增长将保持韧性，因新能源和技术 升级的趋势加快，成熟市场的发展机遇也值得关注。(人民财讯) ...

柳工（000528）7月11日在分析师会议上表示，上半年公司的欧洲区收入和利润同比均实现增长，目前 正在加强部分核心市场的销售和渠道网络建设。公司对海外市场的未来发展充满信心，未来将从国际化 战略升级至全球化战略，通过供应链、全球研发中心、销售网络、金融服务、制造基地等环节在全球市 场的本地化布局，保障海外业务的稳定高质量增长。(人民财讯) ...

证券代码：000528 证券简称：柳工 债券代码：127084 债券简称：柳工转 2 广西柳工机械股份有限公司 投资者关系记录表 | | 特定对象调研  分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系 | 媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | | 新闻发布会 路演活动 | | 活动类别 | 现场参观 | | | 其他： | | | 基金、国华兴益保险资产、国联安基金、新华基金、阳光资产、银华基金、源 | | | 机构投资者、券商分析师等 115 位参会人员： 嘉实基金、华夏基金、博时基金、广发基金、工银安盛资产管理、光大保德信 | | | 峰基金、长安基金、国寿资产、红杉中国、华泰证券资管、汇添富基金、南方 | | | 基金、浦银安盛、上海东方证券资产管理、上海高毅资产、长城人寿保险、中 | | 参与单位名称 | 国平安人寿保险、中信保诚基金、中信证券资管、Hang Seng Investment | | 及人员姓名 | Management、Point72； | | | 中信证券、中信建投证券、中金公司、华泰证券、广发证券、国泰海通证券、 | | | 国金证券、长江证券、浙商证券、瑞银证 ...

Group 1 - The company expects an upward trend in operating performance for the period from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [1] - The main reasons for the change in net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses include a recovery in the domestic market driven by economic stabilization policies, product upgrades, and accelerated growth in the earth-moving machinery industry [1] - The company's main products, including loaders, excavators, and road machinery, have achieved rapid growth due to the favorable market conditions [1] Group 2 - The international market is currently in a demand bottoming phase, presenting challenges for the company [1] - The company is implementing a "three-full" strategy focusing on comprehensive solutions, full automation, and full internationalization to address market competition and environmental challenges [1] - Both domestic and international business revenues and profits have shown stable growth as a result of the company's innovative practices and strategic upgrades [1]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to be between 118,023.71 million yuan and 127,859.02 million yuan, representing a growth of 20% to 30% compared to the previous year, which was 98,353.09 million yuan [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 109,003.44 million yuan and 118,838.75 million yuan, with a growth of 21% to 32% compared to the previous year's 90,260.84 million yuan [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 0.5845 yuan/share and 0.6332 yuan/share, compared to 0.5041 yuan/share in the previous year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The domestic market is experiencing a recovery due to ongoing economic stabilization policies, increased demand for product upgrades, and accelerated transition to new energy, leading to significant growth in the company's main products such as loaders, excavators, and road machinery [1] - The international market is currently in a demand bottoming phase, but the company is addressing challenges through its "Three Full" strategy, which focuses on comprehensive solutions, full automation, and full internationalization, resulting in stable growth in both domestic and international business revenues and profits [1]

柳工（000528）公告，预计2025年上半年净利润为11.8亿元–12.79亿元，比上年同期的9.84亿元增长 20%–30%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The excavator sales in China showed significant growth in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations, with a total of 120,520 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [1] Sales Performance - In the first half of the year, domestic sales reached 65,637 units, up 22.9%, while exports totaled 54,883 units, marking a 10.2% increase [1] - In June alone, excavator sales reached 18,804 units, a 13.3% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 8,136 units (up 6.2%) and exports at 10,668 units (up 19.3%) [3] Market Trends - After a brief decline in May, domestic excavator sales rebounded in June, supported by accelerating second-hand machine exports and policy-driven demand [2] - The construction machinery industry is experiencing a recovery, with the real estate sector's negative impact on excavator sales diminishing and infrastructure investment remaining resilient [3] Export Dynamics - The export value of China's construction machinery in May was 36.168 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, with a total export value of 165.91 billion yuan from January to May, also up 10.2% [4] - Emerging markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa are driving demand, with Chinese equipment's cost-performance advantage facilitating market expansion [4] Industry Outlook - Major construction machinery companies are optimistic about the market recovery, with expectations of stable growth in domestic and overseas markets [5][7] - The industry is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, driven by infrastructure investments, new urbanization, and the increasing penetration of renewable energy products [9]