对话东方汇理资管：“美国例外论”式微，看好中国AI发展

Group 1 - The confidence in the "American exceptionalism" narrative is declining, with institutional investors showing the lowest bullish sentiment towards the dollar and US stocks since 2005 [1][5] - Over $100 billion has flowed into European equity funds in the first half of 2025, doubling from the previous year, while outflows from the US have exceeded $87 billion [1][2] - The US economy is slowing down, and the policy environment has shifted from "market-friendly" to "market-damaging," impacting investor sentiment [1][5] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index's earnings growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in Q2, down from 13.7% in Q1 [2] - The Chinese stock market shows potential, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 2.8% and the Hang Seng Index up 20% in the first half of the year [2][8] - The emergence of DeepSeek signifies a shift in the AI investment landscape, indicating that the dominance of the "Big Seven" US tech companies is being challenged [2][6] Group 3 - China has over 4,500 AI companies, covering a complete chain from basic computing power to industry applications, with significant penetration in various sectors [3][10] - The gap in foundational technology between China and the US is narrowing, although the US maintains a more closed and costly ecosystem [3][11] - The Chinese market is expected to benefit from a new round of fiscal and monetary policy easing, with a focus on domestic demand-driven sectors [8][9] Group 4 - The Chinese technology sector is seen as undervalued compared to its US counterparts, particularly in AI applications and downstream software development [7][8] - The integration of AI technology with manufacturing capabilities is crucial for future advancements, with a focus on robotics and intelligent vehicles [7][10] - China's strong performance in STEM education and research output positions it favorably in the global AI landscape [10][11]