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央行再定调,人民币汇率基本稳定有坚实基础!走向“7”时代是否可期
Bei Jing Shang Bao·2025-07-15 12:02

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is showing strength against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar, with various positive factors contributing to its potential appreciation [1][4][5]. Group 1: Yuan Exchange Rate Trends - The CFETS yuan exchange rate index rose by 0.3% to 95.6 in the past week, with both onshore and offshore yuan appreciating against the dollar [1][3]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore yuan appreciated over 1.8% against the dollar, while the offshore yuan rose nearly 2.5% [3]. - As of July 15, the onshore and offshore yuan were trading at 7.1737 and 7.1760 against the dollar, showing slight daily depreciation of 0.02% and 0.05% respectively [3]. Group 2: External Influences on Yuan Strength - The US dollar index fell by 10.79% by the end of June, marking the largest decline for the same period since 1973 [4]. - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $33,174 billion by the end of June, up $322 million from the previous month, indicating a stable foreign exchange market [4]. - The macroeconomic policy aimed at stabilizing growth is expected to be a key factor in maintaining the yuan's stability [4][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Yuan - Analysts predict that the trend of a weakening dollar will continue, which may enhance the attractiveness of yuan assets [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the dollar index could drop to 89 by the end of 2026, with the yuan potentially reaching 7.05 against the dollar [6]. - The yuan's appreciation potential is supported by ongoing progress in China-US trade negotiations and improved capital flows [6][7]. Group 4: Regulatory Perspective - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of exchange rate stability over unilateral appreciation, aiming to prevent excessive fluctuations [8]. - The central bank's stance is to maintain a flexible exchange rate while reinforcing expectations to avoid risks of over-adjustment [8].