专访上海财大校长刘元春：建议将“以旧换新”补贴规模扩大至5000亿元以上，乘数效应约为3~4倍

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the consumer market in the first half of the year shows a recovery driven by policy support, but the underlying fundamentals for sustained growth remain weak [3][5][6]. Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24,545.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. - The contribution rate of domestic demand to GDP growth was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52%, marking it as the main driving force for growth [1]. Policy Impact - Policy-driven initiatives, particularly the "old-for-new" replacement policy, have significantly boosted consumption in sectors such as home appliances, communication equipment, and new energy vehicles [3][5]. - The current scale of subsidies for the "old-for-new" policy is deemed insufficient, with a recommendation to increase the subsidy from 300 billion yuan to between 500 billion and 1 trillion yuan to effectively stimulate consumption [5][6]. Structural Challenges - The weak consumption is attributed to a combination of low income levels, asset balance sheet issues, and consumer expectations [7][8]. - A comprehensive approach involving sustainable and combined policies is necessary to address the underlying issues of insufficient domestic demand [7][8]. Future Policy Directions - Key areas for policy focus in the second half of the year include enhancing the "old-for-new" policy, increasing transfer payments to low-income groups, addressing service consumption supply bottlenecks, and ensuring that fiscal support aligns with policy design [9][10][11]. - The macroeconomic goals should have a mid-term orientation, considering the structural and external pressures facing the economy [12]. Consumer Trends - The cultural and tourism economy is expected to become a core growth point for expanding consumer demand, driven by a shift from survival-based consumption to improvement-based consumption as GDP per capita exceeds 13,000 USD [17][18]. - There is significant potential for growth in cultural services consumption, which currently lags behind the global average by about 10 percentage points [17][18].