关税冲击显现！美国6月CPI小幅上升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the inflation rate in the U.S. has slightly accelerated due to the impact of tariffs, with the June CPI year-on-year rate reaching 2.7%, the highest since February, and the core CPI at 2.9%, also the highest since February but below the expected 3% [1][4] - The increase in tariffs has led to a significant rise in the average effective tariff rate in the U.S., from 2.4% in January to 20.6% by July 14, marking the highest level since 1910 [4] - Analysts express concerns that the latest consumer price index may not fully reflect the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that the risk of stagflation remains a significant drag on the dollar [4] Group 2 - Following the inflation data release, there was significant volatility in the gold market and the U.S. dollar index, indicating market sensitivity to inflation figures [2] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month remains low, but there is a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, amidst ongoing trade tensions [5] - The lower-than-expected core CPI has raised questions about the extent to which tariffs will affect consumer prices, with some companies absorbing additional costs to shield consumers from price increases [6]