Bei Jing Shang Bao·2025-07-15 13:15Core Viewpoint - The recent "subsidy war" among major players in the food delivery market, including Meituan, JD Group, and Alibaba, is primarily aimed at capturing market share, raising concerns about the potential impact on profit margins and investment returns for these companies [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market has seen intensified competition with the launch of "0 yuan purchase" promotions by Meituan, leading to a significant increase in consumer engagement and social media buzz [1][3]. - As of July 15, 2023, all three major companies—Alibaba, Meituan, and JD Group—experienced stock price increases of 6.97%, 4.38%, and 2.12% respectively, although year-to-date performance shows Alibaba up 40.06% while Meituan and JD Group are down 16.81% and 5.7% respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Holdings - Alibaba is a significant player in public fund holdings, ranking among the top ten heavy stocks with a total market value of 50.713 billion yuan held by 765 funds as of the end of Q1 2023 [4]. - Meituan also has substantial fund backing, with 248 funds holding a total market value of 19.703 billion yuan, while JD Group has limited fund support, primarily from a single ETF [4]. Group 3: Profitability Concerns - Analysts express caution regarding the long-term profitability of the major players due to the aggressive nature of the subsidy war, which may lead to significant losses in the food delivery sector [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs projects that the ongoing subsidy war could result in substantial losses for these companies, estimating that Alibaba's food delivery business could incur losses of 41 billion yuan and JD Group 26 billion yuan by mid-2026 [6]. Group 4: Industry Impact - The subsidy war is expected to benefit leading brands in the tea and beverage sector, with stocks like Nayuki Tea and others seeing price increases since the onset of the subsidy promotions [5][6]. - The competition is anticipated to stimulate demand in the restaurant supply chain, with a potential increase in order volumes as a result of the ongoing promotions [5][6].