风口智库｜10位专家解读中国经济半年报：5.3%有多“硬核”？

Economic Performance - China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The GDP growth for Q1 was 5.4%, while Q2 saw a slight decrease to 5.2% [2] - Q2 GDP growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis was 1.1% [2] Economic Characteristics - The economic performance is characterized by stability, with steady growth, a stable unemployment rate, low inflation, and balanced international payments [4] - There is a firm commitment to economic transformation and high-quality development, with progress in innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and shared growth [4] - New driving forces are accumulating, with localities developing new productive forces and enhancing technological and industrial innovation [4] - Domestic circulation has been prioritized, with policies introduced to expand domestic demand and improve production [4] Future Outlook - The external environment remains complex, and structural contradictions within the economy have not been fundamentally resolved, necessitating continued efforts in the second half of the year [5] - Experts anticipate that the government will adopt flexible policies to counteract the expected slowdown in export growth and to stimulate domestic demand [8][10] - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show robust growth, contributing to the overall economic resilience [12][25] Policy Recommendations - Fiscal policy is expected to be a key focus in the second half, with recommendations for timely implementation of incremental reserve policies and optimizing expenditure structures [15][20] - Monetary policy may see further easing, with potential interest rate cuts and adjustments to housing loan rates [18][20] - The real estate market is seen as a critical area for maintaining economic stability, with calls for measures to boost market confidence [29]