Novo Nordisk Plunges 20% YTD: How Should Investors Play the Stock?

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares have decreased by 19.9% year-to-date due to unfavorable outcomes in its pipeline and regulatory challenges, leading to negative investor sentiment [1][9] - The company is facing significant competition from Eli Lilly (LLY), which has successfully launched its own GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, that are gaining market share [3][15] - Despite recent setbacks, Novo Nordisk continues to show strong sales growth in its key products, particularly Wegovy, which saw an 83% increase in sales in Q1 2025 [7][9] Company Developments - Novo Nordisk's CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen is stepping down amid market challenges, with a search for his successor currently underway [2] - The company has ended its collaboration with Hims & Hers Health, which may temporarily hinder its efforts to increase Wegovy's patient access [4] - The FDA is reviewing Novo Nordisk's application for a 25 mg oral semaglutide for obesity, with a decision expected by year-end [10] Market Position - Novo Nordisk holds a 33.3% share of the global diabetes market and a 54% share of the GLP-1 segment as of March 2025 [6] - The obesity market is projected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, intensifying competition among major players like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [15] - Other companies, such as Amgen and Viking Therapeutics, are also advancing in the GLP-1 space, increasing competitive pressure on Novo Nordisk [16] Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk's stock has underperformed compared to the industry and the S&P 500, with a 51.1% decline over the past year [17] - The company's shares currently trade at a price/earnings ratio of 16, higher than the industry average of 15.12, but below its five-year mean of 29.25 [20] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have improved slightly from $3.85 to $3.98 per share, while 2026 estimates have decreased from $4.65 to $4.59 [23] Future Prospects - Novo Nordisk is actively expanding the indications for its semaglutide products, which could significantly increase its patient base and revenue potential [8][29] - The company is developing next-generation obesity candidates, including CagriSema and Amycretin, with regulatory submissions planned for the near future [12][13] - A recent $2.2 billion deal with Septerna aims to enhance the development of oral small-molecule medicines for obesity and related conditions [14]