中国经济上半年同比增长5.3%，储备政策将择机而出

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, with the first and second industries growing by 3.7% and 5.3% respectively, while the tertiary industry grew by 5.5% [1][5] - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a slight decline to 5.2%, primarily due to investment drag, especially in real estate [1][3] Consumption Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year in the first half, with a notable impact from the "old-for-new" policy on key items like mobile phones, home appliances, and automobiles [2][5] - Service retail sales grew by 5.3%, driven by holiday consumption and inbound tourism, with significant increases in foreign visitors during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [2][5] Export Performance - China's total goods import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports at 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% [3][5] - The export growth rate improved in the second quarter, with a notable resilience despite high tariffs imposed by the U.S., and a significant increase in exports to the EU and ASEAN [3][5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showing a decline compared to the first quarter [4][5] - Real estate investment saw a significant drop of 11.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [4][5] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stabilize growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and addressing the issue of insufficient effective demand [6][7] - The upcoming "old-for-new" consumption policy is anticipated to boost consumer spending in the fourth quarter, although it may raise the baseline for comparison [7][8]