Tesla Q2 Earnings Preview: Will the EV Giant Disappoint Again?

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is expected to report second-quarter 2025 earnings of $0.40 per share and revenues of $22.6 billion, reflecting a decline from the previous year [1][9]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for second-quarter earnings per share has decreased by $0.01 in the past week, indicating a 23% decline year-over-year [2]. - Quarterly revenues are projected to decline by 11.3% compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Vehicle Deliveries and Sales Performance - Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in the second quarter, a 13.5% decrease from the previous year, marking the largest quarterly sales drop in the company's history [3]. - This decline in deliveries is attributed to a demand problem rather than production issues, as the new Model Y has ramped up production [4]. Group 3: Segment Performance - Automotive sales revenues are expected to decline by more than 6%, with gross margins from automotive sales projected at 15%, down 3 percentage points from the previous year [5]. - Conversely, revenues from the Energy Generation/Storage segment are anticipated to rise to $3.03 billion, reflecting growth both sequentially and year-over-year [6]. Group 4: Operating Expenses and Capital Expenditures - Tesla's high operating expenses and capital expenditures are likely to impact profits and cash flows, as the company continues to invest heavily in expanding gigafactory output and enhancing its Supercharger network [7]. Group 5: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Tesla this earnings season, with an Earnings ESP of +0.82% [8].