Can Prologis Keep the Winning Streak Alive in Q2 Despite Challenges?

Core Insights - Prologis (PLD) is set to report its Q2 2025 results on July 16, with analysts and investors keen to evaluate its performance amid current economic conditions [1] Group 1: Prologis Performance - In the last reported quarter, Prologis achieved a surprise of 2.90% in core funds from operations (FFO) per share, driven by increased rental revenues and strong leasing activity, although high interest expenses posed challenges [2] - Over the past four quarters, Prologis consistently exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO per share, with an average beat of 4.18% [2] - Prologis is expected to report Q2 FFO per share of $1.41, reflecting a 5.2% year-over-year increase, while same-store net operating income is projected to grow by 3.3% despite a decrease in occupancy [10][11] Group 2: U.S. Industrial Real Estate Market - The U.S. industrial real estate sector showed resilience in Q2 2025, with net absorption of 29.6 million square feet, consistent with the previous quarter but below historical averages [3] - Vacancy rates increased by 20 basis points to 7.1%, marking the first rise above 7% since Q2 2014, yet remaining only 10 basis points above the 15-year pre-pandemic average [4] - Industrial asking rent growth slowed to 2.6% in Q2, the weakest since early 2020, due to softening demand and rising vacancies [4] Group 3: Leasing and Construction Activity - Leasing activity remained robust, totaling nearly 309 million square feet in the first half of the year, supported by large-scale deals and steady demand from third-party logistics (3PL) [5] - New construction activity saw a significant decline, with completions at 71.5 million square feet, the lowest since Q1 2019, and the under-construction pipeline fell to 268.6 million square feet, the lowest since 2017 [6] Group 4: Strategic Positioning of Prologis - Prologis is expected to leverage its premium asset base in high-demand locations, with targeted acquisitions and developments likely supporting its Q2 results [7] - The company maintains a strong financial position, with a resilient balance sheet and efficient capital access, although high interest rates remain a concern [8] - Interest expenses are anticipated to rise by 11.4% year-over-year in Q2, reflecting ongoing challenges in the economic environment [10][11]