0715：通胀数据落地，美元指数加速反弹！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in July despite pressure from President Trump, as recent inflation data does not support a rate cut [2][5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6% [2]. - The core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, which is below the expected 0.3% [6]. Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.6% [4]. - President Trump has called for an immediate reduction of the federal funds rate by 300 basis points, arguing that inflation is very low [5]. - The recent CPI data has accelerated the rebound of the US dollar index, with an initial target for this rebound expected to test the 99.50-100 range [8].