Loan Growth, Higher Rates to Support Truist's Q2 Earnings

Core Insights - Truist Financial (TFC) is set to announce its second-quarter 2025 results on July 18, with a positive lending environment despite macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Lending and Loan Growth - Strong growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, which make up nearly 50% of TFC's total loans, alongside decent demand for consumer loans, accounting for almost 40% of total loans [2] - The consensus estimate for TFC's average earning assets in Q2 is $478.4 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [3] Net Interest Income and Margins - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, which is expected to positively impact TFC's net interest income (NII) and net interest margin due to higher rates and loan growth [4] - The consensus estimate for Q2 NII is $3.58 billion, indicating a 1.4% year-over-year increase [4] Non-Interest Income Estimates - Service charges on deposits are estimated at $234 million, showing a marginal rise from the previous year, while card and payment-related fees are expected to decline by 2.2% to $225 million [6] - Mortgage banking income is projected to rise significantly, with a consensus estimate of $113 million, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-over-year [7] Fee Income and Expenses - Investment banking and trading income is estimated at $266 million, indicating a 7% year-over-year decline, while lending-related fees are expected to rise by 4.5% to $93 million [8][9] - Total non-interest income is projected at $1.41 billion, showing growth from the prior year [10] Cost and Expense Projections - Non-interest expenses are anticipated to rise by 5.5% year-over-year, with total adjusted non-interest expenses estimated at $2.96 billion [13] - Management expects adjusted expenses to increase by 2-3% sequentially due to higher personnel costs [13] Asset Quality and Credit Losses - TFC is likely to have set aside significant provisions for potential delinquent loans, with an estimated provision for credit losses of $407.9 million, reflecting a 9.6% year-over-year decline [14] - The consensus estimate for total non-accrual loans and leases is $1.56 billion, suggesting a 9.6% year-over-year increase [15] Earnings and Sales Expectations - The consensus estimate for TFC's earnings is 92 cents per share, indicating a 1.1% rise from the previous year, while sales are projected at $4.98 billion, reflecting a marginal year-over-year increase [17]