下半年仍需发力扩内需

Economic Overview - The Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of the year, achieving a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for the annual target despite external pressures [1] - In Q2, GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while exports showed strong resilience with a 5.9% increase in dollar terms [1][2] - Consumption grew by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by policies like "trade-in for new," although fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% [1][2] Consumption and Investment Trends - In June, retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%, with significant declines in various sectors, indicating a need for stronger internal consumption dynamics [2] - Fixed asset investment growth fell by 0.9 percentage points to 2.8%, with all three pillars (infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate) experiencing a slowdown [2] - Real estate investment saw a notable decline of 11.2%, reflecting weakened land acquisition intentions among enterprises [2] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% in June, showing slight improvement, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a larger decline of 3.6% [2] - The real estate market's deep adjustment is exerting pressure on PPI, contributing to the overall low price environment [2] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to implement policies focused on expanding domestic demand and addressing low price levels, with significant fiscal space remaining for stimulus [3] - Fiscal policies include a remaining quota of over 7 trillion yuan for various financial instruments, with plans for special funds to be disbursed in the second half of the year [3] - Monetary policy is anticipated to be flexible, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic restructuring and consumption [3] Anti-Competition Measures - The government is taking steps to combat "involution" in competition, focusing on legal and financial measures to regulate low-price competition and promote industry upgrades [4][5] - Industry self-regulation is being encouraged, with initiatives from various sectors to shift focus from price wars to enhancing product quality and services [5] - The interplay between expanding domestic demand and regulating competition may lead to a shift in policy focus if economic growth challenges exceed expectations [5]