全球贸易下半年不确定性增大

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global trade is expected to grow by approximately 1.5% in Q1 2025 and 2% in Q2 2025, continuing a moderate recovery trend since the second half of 2023 [1] - Despite an increase of about $300 billion in global trade volume in the first half of this year, uncertainties stemming from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions are expected to create significant obstacles in the second half of the year [1] - The report highlights the unclear direction of U.S. trade policy, making it difficult to predict whether the U.S. will suspend, exempt, or impose new tariffs on specific countries and products [1] Group 2 - Since the beginning of 2024, over 150 new restrictive trade measures have been implemented globally, significantly increasing pressure on the trade environment [2] - The economic situation of the least developed countries is particularly vulnerable amid these pressures, prompting calls for developing countries to enhance regional trade cooperation and increase export value [2] - The report emphasizes that China's provision of zero-tariff treatment to all African countries and least developed nations is a significant opportunity for promoting trade development [2]