CHANGHONG(SH:600839) Xin Lang Ke Ji·2025-07-16 00:32Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Changhong's profit forecast for the first half of 2025 indicates a significant increase in net profit, but a decline in net profit excluding non-recurring gains, marking the first drop since 2021, raising concerns about the company's financial health and competitive position in the home appliance industry [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is expected to be between 439 million to 571 million yuan, representing an increase of approximately 56.53% to 103.59% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring gains is projected to decline to between 138 million to 182 million yuan, a decrease of about 2.17% to 25.82% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - Since 2021, both the net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring gains have shown a downward trend, with net profits of 284.6 million, 467.9 million, 687.7 million, and 703.5 million yuan from 2021 to 2024, reflecting a significant decline in growth rates [4][5]. Business Segments - The real estate and overseas appliance businesses have been identified as major factors dragging down the company's growth, with the real estate sector experiencing a 33.87% decline and overseas business gross margins decreasing by 3.86% [3][4]. - The home appliance segment, which accounts for 43.93% of total revenue, reported a 15.29% growth in 2024, but this came at the cost of an 18.06% increase in costs and a decrease in gross margin [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - Sichuan Changhong has faced challenges in maintaining its market position, with its gross and net profit margins significantly lower than competitors like Hisense and Skyworth [9][10]. - The impending launch of Xiaomi's smart home appliance factory, which is expected to produce 3 million air conditioners annually by 2026, poses a threat to Sichuan Changhong's existing partnership and order volume, potentially exacerbating its profitability issues [10][11]. Management and Strategic Direction - The company has been undergoing management changes, with the new leadership needing to address the declining profitability and competitive pressures in the home appliance market [7][12]. - The focus on transforming and recovering its former glory in the home appliance sector is critical, especially in light of the intensified competition and price wars [11][12].