Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is a growing concern over tariffs leading to increased inflation, which has prompted investors to increase their bearish bets on U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 30-year bonds, which have seen yields surpass 5% [1][5] - A significant increase in bearish positions has been noted, with traders betting that the 30-year Treasury yield will rise to approximately 5.3% within about five weeks, with total premiums for related options reaching $10 million [3] - The options market is reflecting a pessimistic outlook, with a surge in demand for hedging against rising yields and further selling of long-term bonds, as indicated by the highest level of option premiums in a month [4] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has recently exceeded 5%, marking a new high since early June, indicating a return to the high range of long-term interest rates for the year [5] - The skew indicator for the 30-year Treasury bonds has sharply shifted towards bearish options premiums over the past week, indicating a lack of meaningful incremental demand to support long-term bonds despite higher yields [6] - The municipal bond market has also faced significant pressure, with the benchmark yield for 10-year municipal bonds rising by 8 basis points to 3.25%, continuing the downward trend seen in Treasury bonds [6]
30年期美债收益率突破5%,长期市政债也暴跌,看空情绪弥漫美债市场
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-16 00:50