Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-16 01:31Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has issued a strong half-year earnings warning, with revenue growth exceeding 200% and net profit growth exceeding 350%, but major Wall Street firms believe the performance "only roughly meets high buyer expectations" [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart expects revenue to increase by no less than 200%, translating to at least 13.7 billion RMB, surpassing Goldman Sachs' expected growth of 187% [3]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to grow by no less than 350%, reaching 4.5 billion RMB, exceeding Goldman Sachs' forecast of 3.8 billion RMB [3]. - The net profit margin has improved significantly to approximately 30%, compared to 20% in the first half of 2024 and 26% in the second half of 2024 [3]. Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley noted that despite the strong performance, it is close to the lower end of the buyer expectations range of 4.5-5.5 billion RMB [3]. - After a 60% increase in stock price over the past three months and a 588% surge over the past year, Morgan Stanley anticipates profit-taking pressure in the short term [4][7]. Analyst Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart for 2025-2027, increasing the target price from 227 HKD to 260 HKD while maintaining a neutral rating [2][8]. - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its target price from 330 HKD to 340 HKD, maintaining an "overweight" rating based on a 1.5x PEG valuation [8]. Growth Catalysts - Morgan Stanley identified five key catalysts to watch: 1. Two new "POPOP" jewelry stores will sell more Labubu products along with other IPs [7]. 2. The first season of the "Labubu & Friends" animation is set to premiere in summer, featuring 20 two-minute videos [7]. 3. Labubu x Uniqlo T-shirts will launch in August [7]. 4. Labubu 4.0 preview/release is expected before Christmas/Spring Festival [7]. 5. Potential launch of interactive/AI toys [7]. Long-term Outlook - Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have raised their profit forecasts based on Pop Mart's strong performance, indicating confidence in the company's ability to expand its IP popularity globally [8].