美国6月CPI整体温和，但“关税阴影”已开始显现

Core Insights - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a moderate increase, with a month-over-month rise of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [1][4] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, slightly below expectations [1][4] Inflation Dynamics - The automotive and travel sectors continue to exhibit weakness, contributing to a drag on inflation, while import prices are showing significant upward pressure attributed to tariffs [4][5] - Various imported goods, including home appliances and sports equipment, have seen price increases approaching or exceeding an annualized rate of 10% over the past three months [5] - The report indicates that as companies deplete their pre-stocked inventories and refrain from further profit margin compression, tariff-related price pressures are expected to intensify in the coming months [5] Sector Performance - Healthcare CPI increased by 0.5% in June, and clothing prices rose by 0.4%, reversing declines from May [5] - The travel industry remains weak, with accommodation prices falling short of expectations and airfares rising less than predicted based on high-frequency travel booking data [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious stance due to the structural divergence in inflation dynamics, with potential upward risks remaining [9] - The forecast for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June is a month-over-month increase of 0.28%, with a year-over-year rise of 2.7% [9]