日本“上议院选举”：一场关于“通胀化债、金融抑制”的公投，是摆在美国面前的样本

Group 1 - The upcoming Japanese upper house election is essentially a referendum on "financial repression" policies, which involve maintaining negative real interest rates to transfer wealth from households to the government for debt sustainability [1] - Voters are demanding tax cuts and cash subsidies, indicating a push to reclaim fiscal space from the government, leading to a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields to their highest levels in over a decade [3][4] - The current market conditions represent a new and uncertain phase for participants accustomed to Japan's ultra-low bond yields, with the 10-year bond yield rising from approximately 0.4% in July 2015 to just below 1.6% [6] Group 2 - Persistent negative real interest rates combined with rising inflation are making these policies increasingly unpopular among the public, with price control measures becoming the top concern for voters [7] - Political parties are actively campaigning on expansionary fiscal policies, with the ruling coalition promising one-time cash subsidies and opposition parties proposing more aggressive consumption tax cuts, potentially impacting government revenue significantly [8]