7.15纯碱日评：纯碱行情持稳 上行支撑有限

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices holding firm but limited upward support due to a balanced supply-demand situation [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of July 15, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1150-1250 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1340 CNY/ton. In Central China, light soda ash is priced at 1110-1310 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1220-1340 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on July 15 is 1157.14, reflecting a slight increase of 1.43, or 0.12%, from the previous working day. The heavy soda ash price index remains unchanged at 1225.71 [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market experienced a slight decline on July 15, with the main contract opening at 1240 CNY/ton and closing at 1214 CNY/ton, marking a daily drop of 0.65%. The highest price during the day was 1247 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1202 CNY/ton, with total open interest increasing by 52,588 contracts to 1,585,075 [5]. - The supply side shows scattered maintenance and some companies increasing production, maintaining high output levels. However, industry profits are declining, putting pressure on producers. Downstream demand remains weak, with buyers primarily engaging in low-price essential purchases [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable operation in the short term, with weak driving forces and an unchanged supply-demand balance. Future attention should be given to macroeconomic policy changes and inventory fluctuations that may impact the market [6].