Tai Mei Ti A P P·2025-07-16 02:14Core Insights - The ongoing food delivery war is causing significant distress for restaurant businesses, as they bear the brunt of platform subsidies and competitive pricing strategies [2][3][4] - Major players in the food delivery market, including Meituan and Alibaba, are engaged in aggressive discounting strategies, leading to a surge in order volumes but also raising concerns about long-term profitability [4][6][10] Group 1: Industry Challenges - Restaurant operators are struggling with high operational costs due to platforms requiring them to subsidize customer discounts, with merchants covering 70% of the costs in some cases [2] - The intense competition has led to a dramatic increase in order volumes, with some restaurants experiencing a tenfold increase in orders, causing operational strain [7] - The Chinese Chain Operation Association has called for regulation of the market to ensure fair competition and protect consumer rights [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of July 12, 2023, Meituan reported over 1.5 billion daily orders, while Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale reached 80 million orders, indicating a doubling of market size since the beginning of the year [4][6] - The market is projected to grow significantly, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 30% year-on-year increase in order volume, driven by aggressive promotional strategies [10] - The competition has led to a substantial increase in investment, with Alibaba, JD, and Meituan collectively investing approximately 25 billion RMB (around 3 billion USD) in the second quarter alone [10] Group 3: Financial Implications - Morgan Stanley predicts that the current subsidy war will negatively impact the profitability of all major players in the short term, with expected stock price pressures in the coming months [8][9] - Long-term market potential remains uncertain, with Morgan Stanley suggesting that if the instant retail market does not reach projected growth, current investment levels may be excessive [9] - The shift towards instant retail is expected to cannibalize traditional e-commerce sales, with food and beverage categories being particularly affected [11][12]