Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-16 02:43Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the decline in global tin ore grades and limited supply increments, coupled with rising costs, the tin price is expected to increase due to tight supply and high demand driven by AI development and a recovery in consumer electronics [1][2] - The report recommends specific stocks: Xiyes Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Silver Tin (000426.SZ), and mentions related stocks such as Huaxi Nonferrous (600301.SH) [1] Group 2 - Supply disturbances are ongoing, with limited incremental production from mines; the complete cost of tin mining is projected to rise from approximately $25,581 per ton in 2022 to $33,800 per ton by 2027 [2] - The global tin production is expected to reach 300,000 tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] Group 3 - The downstream industry is experiencing high demand, particularly in soldering materials, which account for about 56% of tin consumption; the stabilization of the semiconductor cycle is expected to drive rapid demand for solder [3] - A projected supply gap of 8,300 tons in global refined tin by 2025 highlights the supply-demand imbalance [3] Group 4 - The global monetary environment is becoming more accommodative, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could positively impact asset prices and upstream raw material prices [4] - The inflation rate in the U.S. is gradually approaching the target of 2%, indicating a shift in market expectations for demand [4]