美元美债双杀黄金，9月降息预期骤降！黄金价格将走向何方？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have been fluctuating between $3150 and $3450 per ounce since mid-April, with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions influencing the market [2][6] - The recent increase in the US dollar and bond yields has created downward pressure on gold prices, as evidenced by the June CPI rising 0.3%, the highest increase since January, and the dollar index reaching a three-week high [2] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have decreased from 80% to 53%, which may further pressure gold prices if inflation data continues to confirm rising pressures [2] Group 2 - The Trump administration's plan to impose tariffs slightly above 10% on small countries, along with the EU's preparation of an $84.1 billion countermeasure list, may increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to rising trade tensions [4] - Despite a short-term decrease in the probability of rate cuts, dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest that inflation pressures are manageable, supporting the possibility of a rate cut in September [4] - Central banks globally continue to purchase gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, indicating a stable long-term demand for gold [4]