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李宁(2331.HK):2季度流水缓慢恢复 不确定性仍存
Ge Long Hui·2025-07-16 03:24

Core Viewpoint - The sales trend for the Li Ning brand in Q2 2025 has weakened slightly, falling below the company's expectations, with a low single-digit year-on-year retail revenue growth across all platforms [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the online channel outperformed the offline channel, with e-commerce recording a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, while the offline channel experienced a low single-digit decline [1] - The wholesale channel performed better than the retail channel, with offline wholesale and retail channels showing low single-digit growth and mid-single-digit decline year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - Based on more cautious sales assumptions, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards, with expected revenues adjusted to between 29.0 billion and 30.95 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 0.3% to 5.8% [2] - The gross margin and net margin forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered by 0.1% to 0.5% and 0.8% to 1.0%, respectively, leading to a revised net profit estimate of 2.68 billion to 3.40 billion RMB [2] Group 3: Market Conditions - The overall industry recovery has been weak, with a strong promotional atmosphere impacting sales, particularly noted during events like the 618 shopping festival [2] - The company anticipates that the sales recovery in the second half of the year will face headwinds due to ongoing industry promotions, which are expected to pressure gross margins [1][2]