Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dairy industry in China is currently experiencing a downturn in milk prices, leading to a reduction in upstream breeding capacity and a wait-and-see approach from downstream dairy companies for demand recovery [1][2] - Huatai Securities predicts that the dairy industry is expected to return to supply-demand balance by 2026, driven by a decline in raw milk production and a moderate improvement in terminal demand for dairy products [1] - Data from the China Dairy Association indicates a year-on-year decrease in livestock numbers by 1.0/1.5 million heads in May-June 2025, confirming the trend of capacity reduction [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities highlights that Youran Dairy, controlled by Yili Group, covers the entire supply chain from breeding, feed, to dairy cow farming [2] - The beef market is entering an upward cycle due to reduced production in major overseas beef-producing regions, with expectations of decreased import volumes and increased prices in the domestic market [2] - The domestic raw milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure for capacity reduction, while the meat-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, which may accelerate the elimination of dairy cows [2]
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